بررسی نقش تورم، رکود و نوسانات بازار در تشدید آسیب‌های نظام مالیاتی ایران

کیهان  طاهرخوئیانی; ارکان شریفی; هانه  فرکیش

Authors

Kayhan Taherkhoeiani Department of Law, Sa.C., Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj ,Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0008-5293-9489
Arkan Sharifi Assistant Professor, Department of Law, Sa.C., Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran. Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9217-0012
Haneh Farkish Department of Law, Sa.C., Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj ,Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4026-2585

Keywords:

Tax system, inflation, recession, market volatility, tax evasion, tax equity, Iran’s economy

Abstract

The tax system of every country plays a central role in ensuring sustainable government financing and guiding economic activities, and its efficiency is regarded as an essential condition for economic stability. In Iran, macroeconomic conditions in recent decades have been characterized by three prominent features: chronic inflation, recurrent recessions, and severe fluctuations in financial and real markets. The simultaneity and interaction of these factors have significantly disrupted the performance of the tax system and have increased the necessity of scientifically examining their consequences. Given the persistence of inflationary pressures, the decline in productive capacity and business activity during recessionary periods, and the growing uncertainty caused by market instability, understanding the effects of these variables on the structure and functioning of the tax system is a prerequisite for designing effective and sustainable reforms. Therefore, conducting a comprehensive study to explain the damaging mechanisms and to propose solutions based on the realities of Iran’s economy appears necessary. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to analyze the role of inflation, recession, and market fluctuations in intensifying the weaknesses of Iran’s tax system and to present an analytical framework for its reform. To achieve this aim, the study was conducted using an analytical–descriptive method based on theoretical literature. The results indicate that inflation disrupts tax efficiency and tax equity by reducing the real value of tax revenues, creating delays in the adjustment of tax bases, and increasing pressure on businesses. Recession also reduces tax collection and increases tax evasion through declining production, reduced profitability, and decreased business activity. Moreover, market fluctuations weaken taxpayers’ tax behavior and the predictability of government revenues by destabilizing expectations and increasing uncertainty. Based on the findings, overcoming the existing vulnerabilities requires the development of tax bases resilient to economic cycles, the strengthening of data-driven infrastructure, the intelligentization of tax collection processes, and the redesign of tax rules in accordance with inflationary and recessionary conditions. These reforms can provide the foundation for increasing the efficiency, equity, and sustainability of Iran’s tax system.

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